If Ontario continues on the same course, we could see almost 30,000 new cases of COVID-19 a day by the end of May in a worst-case scenario.

Health officials say the only way to flatten the surge of new cases and hospitalizations in the third wave of the pandemic is a six-week stay-at-home order and at least 100,000 vaccinations given per day.

Modelling data released Friday shows that in the next two weeks we could see 1,000 patients in intensive care units regardless of any other public health restrictions.

The data also shows that while people are moving around the province less it hasn’t been enough to slow the transmission of the virus.

Officials say without stronger public health measures and more support for essential workers and high-risk communities cases will continue into the summer.

In the best-case scenario with a stay-at-home order in effect for the rest of this month and a constant rate of administering vaccines the daily new case rate could drop below 2,000 by the end of April. In a moderate rate of growth scenario, the province could see 12,000 new diagnoses a day.

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams says if there was enough vaccine supply from the federal government the province could be administering 500,000 doses a day.